The recent visit of Maldives President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu to India marks a significant moment in the history of bilateral relations between the two nations. While Muizzu’s campaign rhetoric heavily favored reducing Indian influence, his state visit to New Delhi signals a potential shift in Maldives’ foreign policy approach. As he seeks to rebuild bridges, this visit comes at a time when the Maldives faces both domestic and international challenges, making India a crucial partner once again.
Background: From ‘India Out’ to Reconciliation
The ‘India Out’ campaign, central to Muizzu’s presidential election platform, targeted India’s military presence in the Maldives, which had caused discomfort among sections of the Maldivian populace. For years, Indian soldiers had assisted with training Maldivian forces and participated in disaster relief and reconnaissance operations. However, there was growing concern about the visibility of Indian troops across the islands. Muizzu’s promise to remove these forces was seen as a way to assert the country’s sovereignty.
Following his election, Muizzu acted quickly, setting a deadline of March 15 for India to withdraw its military personnel. This stance exacerbated already strained relations, especially after social media spats between Maldivians and Indians, leading to diplomatic interventions to restore calm.
The Significance of Muizzu’s Visit
Despite the friction, Muizzu’s decision to visit India less than a year after assuming office demonstrates a pragmatic recognition of the importance of the relationship. For India, the Maldives holds strategic significance due to its proximity to key maritime routes in the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the Maldives, facing a severe economic crisis, understands that it cannot afford to alienate a major partner like India.
Muizzu’s predecessors, such as Ibrahim Solih, maintained warmer ties with New Delhi, acknowledging India’s role as a key provider of aid and development assistance. India had previously extended a $1.4 billion aid package for infrastructure and development projects in the Maldives. Muizzu’s outreach, therefore, is seen as an effort to secure continued financial support as the Maldives grapples with mounting debt and limited foreign reserves.
The Economic Context: Maldives’ Growing Debt Crisis
One of the key drivers behind Muizzu’s reconciliatory tone is the dire economic situation in the Maldives. The country’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped to $440 million—barely enough to cover imports for a month and a half. Furthermore, global credit rating agency Moody’s recently downgraded the Maldives, citing heightened risk of default on its debt obligations.
The Maldives, whose economy is heavily dependent on tourism, suffered a significant blow following calls to boycott tourism after the online spat between Maldivians and Indians. In fact, the number of Indian tourists, who are among the top five nationalities visiting the Maldives, declined by 50,000, leading to a loss of approximately $150 million. During his state visit, Muizzu acknowledged this setback and expressed his hope to restore the flow of Indian tourists to the Maldives.
Analysts predict that during bilateral discussions in India, Muizzu is likely to request further financial assistance, possibly in the form of a currency swap arrangement or debt support. India’s willingness to step in could provide a lifeline for the Maldives as it navigates this economic crisis.
Navigating Competing Powers: India and China
Muizzu’s earlier visits to Turkey and China, shortly after assuming office, had raised eyebrows in New Delhi. By visiting Beijing before New Delhi, Muizzu had broken with the tradition of Maldivian presidents making India their first official visit destination. This move was interpreted by some as a diplomatic snub, highlighting his perceived alignment with China. His administration’s criticisms of Indian military presence and social media controversies only deepened concerns about Maldives drifting closer to China’s sphere of influence.
However, Muizzu’s recent statements, particularly his commitment to ensuring that the Maldives’ actions do not undermine India’s security, suggest a more balanced approach. Muizzu’s political maneuvering shows that while the Maldives may seek to strengthen ties with other countries, it understands that India’s role in maintaining regional security cannot be ignored.
Strategic Importance of the Maldives for India
The Maldives is a critical player in the Indian Ocean, a region that holds immense strategic significance for India. As part of its ‘Neighborhood First’ policy, India has prioritized fostering closer ties with island nations to secure the region’s security and economic interests.
For India, the Maldives serves as a key partner in maritime security, and ensuring stability in the country helps counter China’s growing presence in the region. The Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has consistently extended support to the Maldives, particularly during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Muizzu’s visit reaffirms the importance of India-Maldives relations, underscoring mutual interests in regional security, trade, and investment.
The Road Ahead: Strengthening Ties
While the ‘India Out’ campaign formed the basis of Muizzu’s election rhetoric, his current focus appears to be on building strong diplomatic and economic ties with India. In an era where the Maldives faces severe fiscal challenges, pragmatic diplomacy is necessary to avoid isolating key partners like India. Muizzu’s conciliatory statements, particularly his recognition of India as a “valued partner and friend,” suggest a pivot toward maintaining balanced relations with both India and other international partners like China.
India, too, is eager to maintain stability in its relations with the Maldives. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, during his meeting with Muizzu, expressed confidence that the President’s visit would give “new impetus” to the countries’ friendly ties.
In conclusion, Muizzu’s visit marks a critical moment in Maldives-India relations. As both nations work to navigate complex geopolitical realities, this visit could lay the foundation for a more stable, mutually beneficial partnership in the years to come. Given the Maldives’ economic dependence and India’s strategic interests, a continued emphasis on cooperation, particularly in trade, security, and tourism, is expected to shape the future trajectory of bilateral relations.