The asteroid 99942 Apophis, famously known as the "God of Chaos," is back in the news with fresh concerns about a possible collision with Earth. While scientists had largely dismissed the chances of such an event, a new study introduces a condition that could alter the asteroid’s trajectory, raising new questions about the risk of an impact in the near future.
What Is the "God of Chaos"?
99942 Apophis is a massive near-Earth asteroid, measuring 1,210 feet wide, discovered in 2004. Its nickname, "God of Chaos," comes from Apophis, a demon serpent from ancient Egyptian mythology. Apophis has garnered attention not only for its size but also for its potentially hazardous approach to Earth, predicted for April 13, 2029—a Friday the 13th that has captured the public’s imagination. The asteroid is expected to come as close as 18,300 miles from Earth, a proximity that has led to extensive study and speculation.
Early Predictions and Dismissed Risks
Initially, when Apophis was first discovered, the scientific community estimated a 2.7% chance of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2029. However, after further study, these early fears were alleviated, and experts ruled out a direct impact on that date. The asteroid is expected to pass by our planet at a safe, though close, distance.
New Study Reveals a Potential Threat
A new study published in *The Planetary Science Journal* has reignited concerns about Apophis. Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert, along with co-author Benjamin Hyatt, examined the possibility of an external factor altering the asteroid's path. According to their research, a collision between Apophis and another small space object could potentially set it on a direct collision course with Earth.
Even a small object, as tiny as 0.6 meters (about two feet wide), could nudge Apophis enough to change its trajectory, with more significant impacts possible if the object were larger. Specifically, for Apophis to be redirected towards Earth, the object colliding with it would need to be approximately 3.4 meters in size.
How Likely Is a Collision?
Fortunately, the odds of such an event happening are extraordinarily slim. Wiegert and Hyatt estimate that the chances of an unseen object deflecting Apophis towards Earth in 2029 are around one in two billion. The reason? Only about 5% of potential collisions would push Apophis in the correct direction for an Earth impact.
Despite the incredibly low probability, the risk cannot be entirely ruled out. According to Wiegert, "The overall probability of a small impact directing Apophis into a collision with the Earth is less than one in two billion."
Monitoring Challenges Ahead
One challenge facing astronomers is the fact that Apophis will remain largely unmonitored until 2027. This is due to the current alignment of Apophis, Earth, and the Sun, which makes it nearly impossible for telescopes to track the asteroid as it stays within the daytime sky.
While scientists are confident that Apophis will not collide with Earth in 2029, its future trajectory beyond that point remains an open question, especially if external factors like a space collision come into play. As Wiegert notes, "The risk of an impact persists, albeit small."
Final Thoughts
The idea of an asteroid collision with Earth may sound like science fiction, but the case of Apophis reminds us that our planet is part of a dynamic and ever-changing solar system. Although the probability of the "God of Chaos" impacting Earth is almost negligible, continued monitoring and research are essential to ensure we are prepared for any potential threats from space.
For now, the risk remains theoretical, but the study provides new insights into the fascinating—and sometimes perilous—world of near-Earth objects.